AI Disruption Survival Playbook

Andy & Steve | Ven Agency | Living Document — Updated 6 Feb 2026

AI Disruption Timeline: 2023-2031

Major model releases mapped to disruption stages — tracking the acceleration
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Stage 1: Augmentation
Stage 2: Displacement
Stage 3: Acceleration
Stage 4: Cascade
Stage 5: Restructuring
GPT-4
Mar 2023 • First "wow" moment
Claude 2
Jul 2023
Gemini 1.0
Dec 2023
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Feb 2024 • 1M context window
Claude 3 Opus
Mar 2024
GPT-4o
May 2024
Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Jun 2024
Gemini 2.0 Flash
Dec 2024
DeepSeek R1
Jan 2025 • Open source disruption
Claude 3.7 Sonnet
Feb 2025 • Extended thinking
Claude 4 Sonnet
Apr 2025
Claude 4 Opus
Jun 2025
GPT-5
Aug 2025
Claude 4.5 Sonnet
Sep 2025
Claude 4.5 Opus
Oct 2025
Gemini 3 Pro
Nov 2025
GPT-5.1
Nov 2025
GPT-5.2
Dec 2025
Claude Opus 4.6
Jan 2026
Claude Sonnet 5 "Fennec"
Feb 2026 • 82% SWE-Bench — Junior dev replacement
YOU ARE HERE
Feb 2026
Pace Accelerating
GPT-4 to Opus 4.6 in under 3 years
82% SWE-Bench
Sonnet 5 hits junior dev replacement territory
Exponential Curve
Each generation doubles capability, halves cost
Window to Prepare
18-36 months from NOW
Anthropic
OpenAI
Google
Other
Window Remaining
18-36
months before pressure gets real
Team Size
Vietnam + Melbourne
Transform, don't fire
Emergency Fund Target
6 months
expenses
Revenue Goal
30%+
non-hourly by EOY

🚨 Urgent Actions

Submit PayRewards Transfer
400K points idle • 20 minute task
ANZ QBR 150k Bonus
Expires 28 Feb 2026 • 22 days remaining
🔍
Audit Top 10 Services for AI Replacement Risk
Identify vulnerable revenue streams
🎓
Start Team AI Training This Month
Cursor, Claude, automation workflows

🎯 The Domino Effect Scenario

👔
Accounting Layoffs
Big Four cut 50%
💸
Consumer Spending Drops
200K people stop spending
Hospitality Bleeds
CBD cafés lose 30% traffic
🏢
Commercial Property Falls
Office vacancy spikes
🏦
Banks Tighten
Lending slows
🏠
Property Slides
Prices drop 5-10%
⚖️
Law/Insurance/Marketing Follow
Cascade across professional services
📉
Recruitment Collapses
Nobody hiring
🏛️
Government Squeezed
Tax revenue down, welfare up
💀
Confidence Death Spiral
Self-reinforcing contraction

📊 Marketing Disruption Timeline

Service 2-Year Threat 5-Year Threat
SEO 🔴 Critical ☠️ Dead
PPC / Paid Ads 🔴 Critical 🔴 Severe
Content Marketing 🔴 Critical ☠️ Dead
Social Media Management 🟡 High 🔴 Critical
Brand Strategy 🟢 Low 🟡 Moderate
AI Implementation N/A 🟢 Growing

🎯 Ranked Opportunities

1
AI Implementation Consulting
💰 Capital: $0 📈 Revenue: $15-30K/engagement ⏱️ Timeline: 30 days
Energy Allocation
35% — AI resilience: 5-7 years
2
Fractional CMO / Advisory
💰 Capital: $0 📈 Revenue: $200K+/yr ⏱️ Timeline: This month
Energy Allocation
35% — AI resilience: 7-10 years
3
VenHub SaaS
💰 Capital: Moderate (time) 📈 Revenue: High if PMF ⏱️ Timeline: 6-12 months
Energy Allocation
20% — AI resilience: Long
4
3D Printing / Fabrication
💰 Capital: $10-25K 📈 Revenue: $80-150K/yr ⏱️ Timeline: 3-6 months
Energy Allocation
10% — AI resilience: Very long
5
Solar / Energy
💰 Capital: $5-15K training 📈 Revenue: $150-300K/yr ⏱️ Timeline: 12-18 months
Energy Allocation
Future — AI resilience: Extremely long
6
Property Maintenance
💰 Capital: $3-8K 📈 Revenue: $80-120K solo ⏱️ Timeline: 2-4 weeks
Energy Allocation
Backup — AI resilience: Long
7
Food Infrastructure
💰 Capital: $50-200K 📈 Revenue: Variable ⏱️ Timeline: 6-12 months
Energy Allocation
Parked — AI resilience: Long

👥 Team Transformation Timeline (12 Months)

Months 1-3
• Audit roles & AI potential
• Train on AI tools
• Identify adapters vs resistors
Months 4-6
• Restructure around AI
• Stop backfilling
• Natural attrition
Months 7-12
• 2-3x productivity/person
• Smaller team, higher pay
• AI-managed workflows

🔧 Physical Business Tiers

TIER 1 — HIGHEST
• Skilled trades
• Property maintenance
• Local food production
TIER 2 — STRONG
• Logistics & last-mile
• Healthcare-adjacent
• Small agriculture
TIER 3 — MODERATE
• Personal services
• Custom fabrication
• Specialised repair
⚡ Single Strongest Play
Energy (Solar + Battery + EV)
Can't download electricity • AI designs, humans install • Government subsidies de-risk

🚦 Tripwire Dashboard

🟢 Happening Now
  • AI writes production code
  • AI generates marketing content
  • AI handles customer support
  • AI creates professional designs
🟡 Watch Closely (6-18mo)
  • AI agents chaining tasks autonomously
  • AI replacing junior professional services
  • Sub-$1000 reasoning at expert level
  • AI sales agents closing deals
🔴 Critical — Act Fast
  • Fortune 500 cutting 30%+ citing AI
  • AI fully managing small businesses
  • White-collar unemployment >8%
  • Humanoid robots at scale

Personal Tripwires (Ven-Specific)

Yellow Alert
• Competitor delivers with half the team
• Client asks "why can't AI do this?"
• Freelancer rates drop 20%+ YoY
Orange Alert
• Client cancels citing "using AI internally"
• Multiple rate renegotiations same quarter
• Lose pitch to one-person AI operation
Red Alert
• 2+ major clients leave for AI in 6mo
• Industry peers closing/merging
• Revenue down 30%+, pipeline dry

🏗️ Infrastructure Plays (Ranked by Conviction)

1
Energy (Solar + Battery + EV)
2
Water & Waste
3
Food Supply Chain
4
Shelter & Housing
5
Connectivity (Physical Layer)
6
Healthcare (Physical Layer)

✅ Action Checklist

Andy + Steve: 2-hour strategy session (no laptops). Three questions: If Ven had to survive on half revenue in 18 months, what do you cut/keep? What's one thing you could package and sell within 90 days? What does life look like if Ven doesn't exist in 3 years?
Submit PayRewards transfer (400K points sitting idle, 20 min task)
Calculate exact monthly burn rate
Review this dashboard and bookmark for weekly reference
Audit Ven's top 10 services — mark which AI could replace in 24 months
Review investment portfolio allocation (AI infrastructure vs labour-heavy)
Identify one repeatable deliverable to productise
Start training Vietnam team on AI tools
Set up "disruption fund" savings account if not already done
Block time to map VenHub's path to first revenue
Package and price "AI Marketing Accelerator" (or similar productised offer)
Pitch fractional CMO retainers to 2-3 existing clients
Begin natural attrition policy (don't backfill roles AI can handle)
Research 3D printing business partnerships with local trades
Set up weekly monitoring dashboard (employment data, client pipeline, competitor activity)
30%+ revenue from non-hourly sources (products, retainers, advisory)
Team restructured around AI-augmented roles
At least one physical-world income stream started or in development
6-month emergency fund established

💰 Asset Allocation Strategy

Cash (AUD)
6-12 months expenses — King in first 6-18 months of crisis
Property (Capitol Grand)
Hold — Physical assets retain value, people always need shelter
Equities
Rebalance to AI infrastructure — Winners: NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN
BTC
5-10% of portfolio — Hedge against institutional failure
Gold
5-10% of portfolio — Insurance, not investment
This is a living document. Update it as circumstances change.
The plan isn't fixed — but the preparation is non-negotiable.